Confidence based on what? This is my point, above all others... we tend to like to dream about replacement technologies because it helps comfort us. But we don't acknowledge that a) so many of those alternative sources actually depend on an underlying cheap oil supply, and b) the technological advancement required to put them into widespread daily use is not progressing nearly as fast as we think or hope. Even if it were, the alternatives only replace small portions of our current oil-driven system. Hydrogen, solar, electric, nuclear, natural gas... they all have practical usage limits and supply/handling issues of their own.

Furthermore, you need to come to grips with the possibility (even if you think it remote) that our present oil-based industrial system will not last forever. What then? I'd rather be prepared to live otherwise and be pleasantly surprised when the oil keeps flowing for another couple of generations, rather than the reverse.

History is chock full of civilizations which rose and fell, essentially on their own arrogance. What makes us think ours is any different? We don't seem to be learning any other lessons from history, ancient or more recent.

 

when it comes to oil or any other "natural" resource, you must remember the tree loggers motto:

EARTH FIRST! THEN WE WILL LOG THE REST OF THE PLANETS!!




the whole thing over "are we running out?" , "are we causing global warming?", "can tree huggers be stopped?"


the answer to these and many more questions are "YES" and "NO"


oil? the governement , oil exploration companies, and scientists have an "estimated" amountof reserve under the North Americancontinent. the oodles of unlocated crude is endless world wide.
no one person , governement, scientist, or business entity can absolutely claim how much crude is available for the HUMAN RACE to tap and use!

you can bicker day and night of the issue to no avail.

as for "global warming", its a farce as described by the Democrats.

If you pay attention to proper science, and not government philosophy, "global warming" is a naturally occuring condition of the world. as the scientific community cores glaciers, the polar ice caps, and other frozen wastelands world wide, they are finding that the world regularly HEATS AND COOLS ITS SELF on a continuous basis. the sun also goes through high and low outpout cycles which add and subtract radiant heat energies to the Earth. science, as we know it, is a NEW thing. we, as humans, have advanced more technologically speaking, in the past 100 yrs, than any other time in history!
the ancient Chinese, Romans, Aztecs, and the like, all had advancements in science tooled to their ability of understanding and technological capabilites.
Since the GREAT WAR (WWI), the world , especially the USA, changed dramatically. by the end of WWII, techinologies had jumped 20 yrs a head of what was thought possible.


why would the abundant supply of crude suddenly run out like a 5 gallon bucket of water???

if you take note of politics, and oil companies, "new " data surfaces every couple months or so so keep you "on edge". the only reason they debate the whole crude supply is to help RAISE the amount they may charge for its refined goods. if the news, and other green asses would shut up for a minute, oil prices may just drop.
example.....if you own a store, and you deal in an item that takes some time to make/ process for market, a few customers get up in arms about the stuff you carry since your SEEN stock is limited. now, these customers go out and throw a fit in public about quantity on hand, and make a fuss over availability. wouldt you raise your prices and act as though you have the last two specimens in the land????

in a nut shell, thats the price of oil.

we have it, we can find it, but the GREEN minded a-holes throw a fit over the use/ production so the price sky rockets.

its all politics no matter how you list it

 

I agree totally. In fact, that's where I disagree with Kunstler's book.

But apart from the climate issue, there are many others worth taking a look at. I'm no fan of government (see my post #27 in this thread). And I like oil. My truck runs better with it than without. But there are so many other connected issues and things to consider. Our system is failing, and oil is just one part/cause of it.

Most folks who subscribe to one political side or the other tend to think that the opposite side is lying to them. Whatever the enemy says, it's a lie. And to a large degree, both sides are indeed lying. But much of what they're lying about is simply a distraction, and the truth and real issues are elsewhere. Read The Long Emergency, take a step back and think about the way we live (all of it, not just our use of oil), and hopefully you'll see that so much of what we call modern civilization is utterly absurd. Our agriculture, our financial system, corporations. Absurd. And it can't continue forever.

 

Oil won't suddenly run out like an empty bucket, but lets be honest with the facts. The quality of oil that is being refined today is less than it was yesterday and this trend will continue. When I refer to quality of oil, I'm talking about how much refining it takes to make it usable. This will continue to drive up the cost of oil. The amount of oil produced by the United States has been declining since the 70's. Yes there is oil in the USA yet to be pumped out of the ground, but again, its the cost of getting to it and the quality of it.

FAQ:

USA uses 20 Million barrels of oil every day
USA produces 8.3 Million barrels of oil every day
USA Imports 11.7 Million barrels of oil every day


China and developing countries will continue to compete for the oil we are importing driving up the cost. Americans will continue to use more oil. BUT, What will happen is that the cost of fuel will go up so high that many people will be forced (by economics) to change to more fuel efficient vehicles and eventually (even if a Republican is president) higher EPA MPG requirements will be put in place and Americans will be encouraged to conserve (Yes, Jimmy Carter had it right so put on that sweater). We've enjoyed a good ride and I, like many of you, will continue to do so until I can no longer afford to or government regulations force otherwise.

 

I am sure Ahab did not think we would run out of whales to get oil from either.

Oil will run out but it will still be a while. Should we worry about it? Not much as there is little we can do about it and there will be something else that becomes cost effective to replace it when the ROI makes someone a profit.

 

That's pretty much what I said Kev-N...

As to Chouseal, what is my confidence based on? The unabashed and blatant love of money by this country and the absolute drive by mankind in general to further technology, good or bad.

It's the very basis by which we have lived and evolved since our beginnings and why we are at the top of the food chain. Our ability to adapt.

The reasons we haven't seen alternative power and fuel systems take root has nothing to do with our inability to create/make or use them, or about any comfort dreams, but completely about the money involved. That seems to be the part many aren't getting. The technologies have existed for years. We won't see them go mainstream until or unless we actually have a real fossil fuel crisis. As yet another example to illustrate the corporate "squeeze every cent you can get out of a product" model, look at computers, specifically the CPU's. Intel and AMD have working models that are several steps above the fastest currently available on the market. This is intentional. They won't release those speedier units until they've wrung as much profit as they possibly can out of the current retail offerings, or the competition bests them first. It's all a game of economics, not what is or isn't possible or feasible technically.

The same game is being played with oil. The alternative technologies exist, have existed for a long time, but again as I mentioned, a full-scale switch over would cost billions (and these corps have this money).In the mean time the oil corps are going to squeeze every last penny out of the fossil fuels and will wait until they are absolutely forced to play the switch over game or go out of business (assuming that day ever actually comes). In the meantime we're going to continue to see token efforts for alternative fuel or powered vehicles.

Does anyone else find it odd that in the early 90's Honda sold a model of the Civic that got 55MPG EPA rating, all with no electric motors or batteries or any other "green" technology, yet in 2007 a Toyota Prius, a hybrid electric can barely muster 45 MPG? Does anyone else see that as odd? Why the discrepancy in the technology available? What about technologes that go all the way back to the 60's that provided high efficiency in engines and high milage then as well? Those technologies aren't vaporware as many have been documented and demonstrated. Why have they never been produced en mass?

Why does it always seem that we are in a "oil crisis"? Why do we seem to only worry about sending aid or our armies to countries that are oil producing nations, or at the very least neighbors to them and do it all in the name of Democracy and humanitarianism? When was the last time our troopswere sent to other countries suffering from genocide and civil war...oh say, like Africa?

Ya know, I'm not all into that black helicoptergovernment conspiracy crap, but one thing I do know, corporate America is ALL about the money and to that end they will say and do anything they think they can get away with. I certainly don't need to defend that position as any one can simplylook at what is or has happenedin corporations around them. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out.

All the rest of the predictions and analysis and guessing at how much oil we have or don't have is just a lot of hyped noise in the money making machine. I have absolute faith that no one is going to "fix" any energy issues until somehting runs out somewhere. Actually, what I should say is, no one is going to release a fix beause the technologies already exist just waiting for the right moment and right demand.




As for unlimited supply of oil, as I said before, the bottom line is simply that no one really knows. All we have are speculative guesses and even thoseavailable do not agree. I used the global warming example as a comparison.

I speculated aboutoil possibly still being created inside the earth. I have no idea, but basic logic says there's just as good a chance of it continuing to happen than it there just being a finite, single amount and that's it.

 

You guys just gave me a headache!

 

The only thing I've learned over the years, is that no matter how well informed I may or may not be, my opinion or what i think should or should not happen doesn't make a damn bit of difference. There are far too many people ahead of me who sit in much bigger chairs than I do who pull the strings, therefore I don't even bother myself with thinking about it or worrying about it. All I can do is pray that the people who pull the strings make the right decisions for all of us. Anything more than that is just like pissing in the wind.

 

I know one thing and thats oil is not going to get any cheaper and we have it very cheap still in the US, the UK gas prices are at around 7.50 a gallon, I cannot imagine paying that much for gas and still eating good which I think many of us can say. When some of us have to commute 60 miles for a crap job at 15mpg @ 7.50 a gallon, thats alot of duckets down the pipe and I think will be the downfall of the internal compustion engine, which sucks because all hybrids and electric cars are butt ugly and I want a good looking vehicle that goes fast and makes alot of noise